Unexpected Inventory Surge: Why More Homes Are Hitting the Market in Ventura County This Fall

Why Inventory Is Up in the 4th Quarter: A Shift in the Market

As the cooler months roll in, many Ventura County and Conejo Valley homeowners tend to press pause on selling their homes, opting instead to enjoy the holidays and wait for the new year. Typically, as the summer sun fades, the real estate market follows suit, slowing down with fewer homes hitting the market. But this year, something unusual is happening; inventory is on the rise, defying the seasonal trends we've come to expect.

The most recent data from Realtor.com reveals that in September, the number of homes put up for sale increased by 11.6% compared to this time last year.

As the green circle in the graph below shows, the typical September decline in homes coming to the market didn’t happen – that number actually went up (see graph below):

Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains why there was an unseasonable rise:

“This sharp increase is largely due to the decline in mortgage rates in mid-August, enticing homeowners to sell.”

So, as rates came down at the end of the summer, more people jumped into the market and decided to make their move.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“The rise in inventory – and, more technically, the accompanying months’ supply – implies home buyers are in a much-improved position to find the right home and at more favorable prices.”

A Year of Surprises in the Housing Market

So, why is this year different? Traditionally, by the time we hit the fourth quarter, the number of homes listed for sale dips significantly. Homeowners, either worn out from the summer hustle or eager to settle into holiday routines, often delay listing until the new year. However, this year, the market took an unexpected turn.

According to recent data from Realtor.com, the number of homes listed in September increased by 11.6% compared to the same time last year—a jump that left many real estate professionals, including us here at Avant ONE Real Estate, taking notice.

What’s behind this surge? Lower mortgage rates. As rates dipped in the late summer and early fall, homeowners saw an opportunity to sell, even when they might have been planning to wait until spring. With the prospect of favorable financial conditions, more sellers moved their plans forward, eager to capitalize on the current market.

The Local Impact: A Surge in Listings Across Ventura County

Here in Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, and surrounding areas, the uptick in listings has been notable. We’re seeing a wide variety of properties—from luxury estates in Lake Sherwood to charming family homes in Agoura Hills—come onto the market. For potential buyers, this is great news. More homes mean more options, which is especially welcome as the market navigates unpredictable shifts in interest rates and buyer demand.

This increase in inventory offers a rare opportunity for both buyers and sellers. For buyers, the usual fourth-quarter drought of available homes is no longer an issue. Instead, they can explore a broader selection of homes, making it a prime time to find that perfect fit. For sellers, more buyers in the market—especially those who were previously priced out—are looking to take advantage of lower mortgage rates, leading to stronger demand and competitive offers.

Why This Matters for You

Whether you're thinking about selling or buying, the current market conditions create unique opportunities. Sellers who list now will benefit from the increased buyer interest and reduced competition, as many homeowners still cling to the belief that waiting until spring is better. Buyers, on the other hand, are finding themselves with more choices than usual for this time of year, which is a pleasant surprise in a typically lean fall market.

At Avant ONE Real Estate, we’re seeing this shift firsthand and are helping our clients navigate this changing landscape. The window of opportunity may not last long, though, as market conditions can change quickly, especially with fluctuating mortgage rates. But for now, Ventura County's real estate market is showing resilience, and if you’ve been considering making a move, there’s no better time than now.

Final Thoughts

This unexpected boost in listings is a reminder that the real estate market doesn’t always follow the rules. If you're considering selling, you don’t have to wait for the usual “spring bounce.” And if you're a buyer, now’s your chance to find a home without the usual fourth-quarter scarcity. The landscape is changing, and at Avant ONE, we’re here to ensure you're positioned to make the most of it.

Remember, real estate is about timing, and right now, the timing is on your side. Reach out to us today to explore how these market changes can benefit you.